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All Eyes on CPI
Tom White
August 12, 2025
U.S. stock futures are relatively flat ahead of the Wall Street open after falling modestly on Monday. Investor focus today will be on inflation data with the release of the CPI report ahead of the open.
The consensus for headline inflation is up 0.2% on the month and 2.8% year-over-year. Core CPI is seen at 0.3% on the month and 3.0% in July, which would be the hottest reading since February.
Even with the rising expectations for CPI, there is an 85% probability for a rate at the FOMC meeting according to the CME Fedwatch tool.
Morning Movers
Snapshot (as of 7 AM ET)
Oil (/CL) – Oil prices are down 0.5% near $63.50 a barrel and remain supported by easing geopolitical risk and news that U.S. President Trump is extending a tariff truce with China by another 90 days. That has helped to keep demand expectations underpinned, although at the same time, markets are also buying into hopes of a breakthrough in the scheduled talks between Putin and Trump, which could unlock Russian supply.
Gold (/GC) – Gold prices are down 0.3% near $3395 and are extending a sharp selloff in the previous session, as investors focused on U.S. inflation data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut timeline. The moves come after U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out tariffs on imported bullion.
Bitcoin (/BTC) – The Crypto Future is down about 0.6% near $118,800 in the premarket.
VIX – The CBOE Volatility Index was up 7.2% on Monday and settled at 16.25 as stocks fell.
U.S. Dollar (/DX) – The dollar is flat at 98.4.
Biggest Premarket Movers
Symbol | Product | Mark % Change (as of 7 AM ET) |
|---|---|---|
INTC | Intel | +2.66% |
PANW | Palo Alto Networks | +1.24% |
SBUX | Starbucks | +1.16% |
CE | Celanese | -14.64% |
CAH | Cardinal Health | -5.30% |
ALB | Albemarle | -1.87% |
Economic Data
Time | Event |
|---|---|
6:00AM ET | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
8:30AM ET | CPI |
10:00AM ET | Fed’s Barkin Speaks |
10:30AM ET | Fed’s Schmid Speaks |
2:00PM ET | Treasury Statement |
Notable Earnings
Premarket | Postmarket | Premarket Tomorrow | Postmarket Tomorrow |
|---|---|---|---|
ALT, BITF, CAH, CRCL, HUYA, IHS, ONON, PSFE, PONY, SE, SFD, TME | CAVA, CRWV, HRB, KLC, LITE, RGTI | EAT, CAE, PFGC, TCEHY, VG | CSCO, COHR, RRGB |
Upgrades/Downgrades
Piper Sandler upgrades Chipotle (CMG) to Overweight from Neutral
Baird upgrades Starbucks (SBUX) to Outperform from Neutral
Loop Capital upgrades Five Below (FIVE) to Buy from Hold
Phillip Securities downgrades Shopify (SHOP) to Neutral from Accumulate
Daiwa downgrades Illumina (ILMN) to Neutral from Outperform
Seaport Research downgrades Serve Robotics (SERV) to Neutral from Buy
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